Chance to Win ≥ 50% Maximizes Expected Value — Until You Add a Second Metric

Bayesian or frequentist for the actual launch decision? I went back and forth on this longer than I'd like to admit. What settled it wasn't a theoretical argument — it was noticing how simple the Bayesian version could be, and then finding a genuinely surprising wrinkle once a second metric enters the picture.

Why Bayesian, in Practice

Doing this properly with a non-inferiority test is entirely possible, but it adds real complexity — a margin to agree on, a one-sided correction...

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